Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
$3.6M vol · $82K in 24h · 78 d to result
Result expected January 1, 2027 at 04:59 AM
Chance of “Yes”
8%
1w +3 pts
How the event resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.