Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

$69.9M vol · $154K in 24h · 94 d to result

Result expected January 1, 2027 at 04:59 AM

Chance of “Yes”

14%

1w −1 pts

How the event resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.