Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

$8.1M vol · $108K in 24h · 6 d to result

Result expected October 5, 2026 at 03:59 AM

Flávio Bolsonaro

1w +5 pts

76%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

1w −5 pts

24%

Renan Santos

<1%

Augusto Cury

<1%

Ronaldo Caiado

<1%

Tarcisio de Freitas

<1%

Showing the 6 most likely of 18 outcomes.

How the event resolves

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).