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Gemini 4.0 released by...?

$884K vol · $245K in 24h · 5 h to result

Result expected December 1, 2026 at 04:59 AM

November 30

1w +3 pts

97%

October 31

1w +9 pts

89%

October 15

71%

October 2

44%

October 10

44%

October 5

42%

Showing the 6 most likely of 7 outcomes.

How the event resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.