Next leader out of power before 2027?
$826K vol · $108K in 24h · 87 d to result
Result expected January 1, 2027 at 04:59 AM
None before 2027
1w +3 pts
Netanyahu - Israel PM
1w −7 pts
Sánchez - Spanish PM
1w +19 pts
Lecornu - France PM
1w −8 pts
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
1w +4 pts
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
1w −1 pts
Showing the 6 most likely of 22 outcomes.
How the event resolves
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.